两种模式在风电场风速预测应用中的对比

Application and Comparison of WRF and BJ-RUC Models on Wind Speed Forecast in Wind Power Field

利用2011年12月至2012年11月贺兰山风电场测风塔实测资料和同期WRF、BJ-RUC模式预测结果,对2种模式在风速预测中的应用进行对比分析。结果发现,月尺度上,2种模式预测的风速月均值普遍较实测值高,且WRF较BJ-RUC更接近实测值;WRF预测的月平均风速标准差普遍较实测低,而BJ-RUC普遍比实测大;春季WRF预测效果整体上较BJ-RUC好,其它季节WRF预测的月平均风速均方根误差较BJ-RUC的小,但与实测风速的相关性较BJ-RUC与实测风速相关性差。日尺度上,凌晨至中午前后和傍晚至前半夜2个时段,2种模式预测风速普遍比实测值大,而中午至傍晚时分正相反,预测值普遍较实测小。2种模式对〉12 m·s^-1风速预测的均方根误差最小,其次是3~12 m·s^-1,〈3 m·s^-1风速预测的均方根误差最大,但BJ-RUC对3~12 m·s^-1范围风速的变化趋势把握能力较好。WRF和BJ-RUC都普遍低估了1~4 m·s^-1风速段的频次,对5~10 m·s^-1范围频次普遍明显高估,对10 m·s^-1以上风速,WRF预测频次较实测低,而BJ-RUC预测频次则较实测高。BJ-RUC对该区风向的预测能力较WRF好。

Based on the observational wind data of Helanshan mountain wind power field from December 2011 to November 2012 and forecasted wind data of the same period by WRF and BJ- RUC models,the applications of two models in wind speed and wind direction forecasting were comparatively analyzed. The results showed that the monthly average wind speeds forecasted by WRF and BJ-RUC models were generally higher than the observation value,and the forecasted wind speed of WRF was more close to the observation than that of BJ- RUC. The standard deviations of wind speed forecasted by WRF were generally lower than the observation values,while that of BJ- RUC were generally larger than the observation. The prediction effects of WRF were better than BJ- RUC in spring,and the root mean squared errors（ RMSE） of the monthly average wind speed forecasted by WRF were smaller than that of BJ- RUC in summer,autumn and winter,while the correlation of wind speed between observation and forecasted values by WRF model was worse than that with BJ- RUC. On daily scale,from the early morning to noon and evening to midnight,the forecasted wind speed of WRF and BJ- RUC models were generally higher than the measured value,while these were generally smaller than the observations from noon to evening. RMSE of wind speed greater than 12 m·s^-1orecasted by two models was the minimum,followed by 3- 12 m·s^-1while that was the maximum for wind speed less than 3 m·s^-1 The forecasted wind speed of two models had good correlation with the measured wind speed with 3- 12 m·s^-1and BJ- RUC model had certain advantages on trend prediction of wind speed. The frequencies of wind speed with 0- 1 m·s^-1nd 4- 10 m·s^-1ere generally underrated by WRF and BJ- RUC models,and were obviously overestimated to 5- 10 m·s^-1ind speed,and for wind speed of 10 m·s^-1nd above,the frequency of forecasted wind speed of WRF model was lower than the observation,while that of BJ- RUC was higher than the actual. The ability of forecasted wind direction by BJ- RUC was better than that of WRF model.