上海市2000—2012空气污染变化特征及R/S分析

Variation Characteristics and R/S Analysis of Air Contamination from 2000 to 2012 in Shanghai

依据上海市环境监测中心发布的可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化硫(SO2)和二氧化氮(NO2)3个指标API数据,分析了2000—2012年间上海市空气污染的变化规律,运用分形理论中的R/S分析法对上海市未来的空气污染作了初步预测.分析结果表明:上海市大气中可吸入颗粒物、二氧化硫和二氧化氮API指数均呈现冬季高、夏季低的季节性周期变化,2000—2012年上海市空气污染总体呈明显的减轻趋势.R/S分析结果反映出上海市未来空气污染变化趋势与过去一致,即呈减轻趋势.这一现象表明上海市近年来实施的空气污染防治措施初见成效.

In this study, the annual variety of three indexes of PM10, SO2, NO2 from environmental monitoring center of Shanghai were analyzed, and the variation trend of air contamination by one of the multivariate statistics methods--R/S analysis was predicted. The analysis result showed that the API index data of PM10, SO2, N02 have the seasonal variation of increasing in winter and decreasing in summer, and the air pollution was reduced obviously from 2000 to 2012. The R/S analysis result showed that the variation trend of air contamination will be similar to the past 12 years. This phenomenon indicates that the pollution prevention measure has achieved initial success.