CAFTA对中国与东盟双边贸易的影响——基于引力模型的实证分析

Impact of Impletion of CAFTA on Bilateral Trade between China and ASEAN——An Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model

选取东盟内外共22个国家的数据为样本,基于引力模型,引入CAFTA虚拟变量建立回归模型,分析CAFTA的建立对中国与东盟之间双边贸易的影响。结论显示,引力模型对中国—东盟间贸易流量的解释有效,CAFTA的成立促进了中国—东盟的双边贸易。针对该分析结果 ,得出了相应的启示。

A total of 22 countries are selected as samples inside and outside ASEAN and the introduction of CAFTA dummy variable regression model is made on the basis of the gravity mode. The author analyzes the impact of the impletion of CAFTA on bilateral trade between China and ASEAN. The conclusions show that the gravity model explains effectively the China-ASEAN trade flows, and the establishment of CAFTA promotes China-ASEAN bilateral trade. Therefore, the analysis results in the corresponding revelation.