旅游危机应急预案的启动研究

Startup of tourism crisis emergency plan

针对旅游危机应急预案的启动问题,从危机发生后立即启动和观察一段时间后启动两种情形,对何时启动应急预案做出判断。结合运筹学的不确定型决策理论,构建启动应急预案决策模型,并进行数值分析,最后利用MATLAB工具对结果仿真。仿真结果表明,何时启动应急预案与危机带来的损失有直接关系,并构建了危机损失的最可能值与最小、最大值之间的等式关系。

Aiming at the startup problem of tourism crisis emergency, the launching time of emergency plan is judged from the situations either immediately or after a period of time of the emergency. The model of emergency plan is built by combining with the research of uncertain decision theory. And the result is simulated by MATLAB after numerical analysis. Simulation results show that the time to start tourism crisis emergency plan is directly related to the losses caused by the crisis. The equality relation among the most probable value, the maximum and minimum of loss is built.