基于SPA的海洋产业系统脆弱性与障碍因素研究——以中国沿海地区为例

Analysis of Marine Industrial System Vulnerability and Obstacle Factors Based on Set Pair Analysis——Taking Coastal Provinces of China as an Example

运用集对分析法从敏感性和应对能力两个角度对中国沿海11个省市的海洋产业系统脆弱性进行了测度。结果表明:中国沿海各地区海洋产业在脆弱性、敏感性和应对能力上差异显著。根据脆弱性评价结果可将各沿海省市分为低脆弱性地区、中等脆弱性地区、较高脆弱性地区和高脆弱性地区等四类;外贸、外资依存度等敏感性因子是低和中等脆弱性地区的主要障碍因素,海洋产业专利比重等应对能力因子是大部分沿海省市的主要障碍因素。

This paper established the marine industrial system vulnerability assessment model of coastal provinces of China from the aspects of sensitivity and responsed capacity by using SPA. Then it used entropy method to evaluate the indicators and to calculate the weights for the assessment. The results indicated that firstly coastal provinces had spatial differences in vulnerability. Secondly, 11 coastal provinces were evaluated and divided into four grades based on the vulnerability value. Thirdly, main obstacle factors of coastal provinces were vary with each other. Dependence on foreign trade and investment were the main obstacle factors to most areas with low or medium vulnerability. Education level of staff working in marine scientific institution, rate of marine technical expense, proportion of marine patents, as well as contributes of marine second and third industries were important obstacle factors to enhance the response capacity for most provinces. The higher vulnerability a province had the easier to be affected by those response capacity obstacle factors.