对外贸易对青岛市经济增长的影响分析——基于误差修正模型的实证研究

Analysis of Foreign Trade Impact on Economic Growth of Qingdao:Empirical Research Based on Error Correction Model

通过研究青岛市对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系,运用协整分析和误差修正模型,从长期和短期两个方面探究对外贸易如何促进经济增长。研究结果表明,无论是从长期还是短期来看,对外贸易都能够促进经济增长。长期来看,两者之间的弹性系数为0.998;短期来看,两者之间的弹性系数为0.663。对外贸易量的多少对于地区经济的发展有着至关重要的意义,基于此,提出了增加对外贸易额的一些建议。

Through the analysis of the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Qingdao ,and using co-integration analysis and error correction model ,the paper discusses how for-eign trade promotes economic growth from long-term and short-term aspects .The study result shows that foreign trade will promote the economic grow th no matter in the long term or in the short term . In the long term ,elasticity coefficient between them is 0 .998 and it is 0 .663 in the short term .The quantity of foreign trade is of vital significance for the development of regional economy .Based on it , this paper puts forward some suggestions on the increase of foreign trade .