三江平原湿地面积减少的驱动因素分析

Driving Factors of Shrinkage of Wetlands in the Sanjing Plain

以1986-2010年三江平原湿地面积和6个潜在驱动因素的13个指标数据为基础数据,应用Tobit模型,分析各驱动因素对湿地面积的影响。研究结果表明,导致湿地面积减少的是人口总量增加、城市化率增大、农村居民人均纯收入提高、耕地面积增加和居民地面积增加。

Driving factors analysis that cause ecosystem change is essential to the design of environmental interventions which could enhance the positive responses and minimize the negative impacts.The Wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain has witnessed a severe shrinkage during the past 60 years.As a consequence,some ecological and environmental issues become increasingly apparent such as the loss of biodiversity,the frequent floods,and the degradation of regulating functions,etc.The shrinkage of the wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain is affected by many driving factors,so recognizing the complicated relationship between them is very insignificant.In this article,the evolution process of the wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain was reviewed;and some qualitative analyses were conducted by the Tobit model to study the impact effects of 6 indicators of 13 possible driving factors on the shrinkage of the wetlands.The results showed that 5 indicators（the total population,the urbanization rate,the rural per capita net income,the cultivated area and the residential area） from 6 possible driving factors（population,economy and land use driving factors） had significant effects on the area of the wetlands.The increase of number of total population,higher urbanization rate,increase of rural per capita net income,increase of the cultivated area and residential area led to the shrinkage of the wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain.