中国与东盟五国贸易结构变化研究——基于2001-2012年数据的实证检验

An Analysis on the Change of China-ASEAN's Trade Structure——Empirical Research Based on Data from 2001 to 2012

中国—东盟自由贸易区(简称CAFTA)是我国对外洽谈的第一个自由贸易区,也是世界上由发展中国家组成的最大自由贸易区。自CAFTA构想提出以来,中国和东盟各国间的贸易结构变化趋势明显加快。本文基于显性比较优势指数和产业内贸易指数分析得出我国各产业在东盟市场上具有不同程度的比较优势,但总体呈下降的趋势,双方整体上存在高度的产业内贸易倾向。中国在未来的"钻石十年"需抓住历史机遇,加快产业转型,提升各行业整体水平。

China ASEAN Free Trade Area （CAFTA）is the first free trade zone that China has built aboard, and it is also the largest free trade zone built by developing countries. Since CAFTA was proposed,the trade structure between China and ASEAN countries has been changing a lot. This paper,based on RCA and IIT,reveals that different Chinese industries have a comparative advantage in different degree in the ASEAN market,but it shows a downward trend. The intra-industry trade between China and ASEAN re-mains in a relatively high level. China is supposed to seize the opportunity,speed up industrial restructuring and improve the overall level of industries at this critical period.