运用统计学原理评价城市道路通行能力

Evaluation of urban road capacity using statistical theory

运用人工计数法、数据统计分析、以及概率论与数理统计等统计学原理,通过SPSS、EXCEL等工具首先对城市道路通行能力的三参数:流量、密度、速度进行分析。再根据道路通行理论修正自由流速度、实际道路通行能力。最后以V/C饱和度作为评价服务水平的主要指标,结合大中型车的混入比对实际道路通行能力的影响程度,把所研究的时段划分为发生车祸、驾驶员检测与响应、平稳过渡、严重拥堵四个阶段并给出其服务水平(LOS)为C级。

Firstly, methods including manual counting method, statistical analysis, probability theory and mathematical statistics, statistical principles are used to analyze flow, density, and velocity which are urban road capacity parameters by SPSS, EXCEL and other tools. Secondly, the free-flow speed and the actual road capacity are corrected according to the road traffic theory. Finally, V/C saturation level of service as the main index evaluation, combined with the impact of large and medium mixing ratio of the actual vehicle road capacity, the period under study is divided into four stages, including the accident the driver detection and response, smooth transition, and severe congestion,and their level of service（LOS） for the C-Class is given.