“伊斯兰国”对伊拉克政治局势与油气开发的影响

The Islamic State's impact on Iraqi politics and petroleum development

在政治领域,"伊斯兰国"的威胁直接导致伊拉克中央政府改组,客观上推动中央政府与库尔德地区政府实现暂时和解,并使伊拉克向一个按照教派民族居住区划分的松散政治联盟方向发展。在石油领域,"伊斯兰国"的威胁直接推动中央政府调整南部地区的产能建设计划,使库尔德地区获得了更多的油田和更加有利的内外部环境,同时"伊斯兰国"自己也依靠掠夺和走私建立了初具规模的石油工业。由于美国无法投入足够的军事资源且同时设定了多个目标,因此"伊斯兰国"的直接威胁在短期内难以消除。"伊斯兰国"引发的其他问题将在未来一段时期成为破坏地区局势稳定的新威胁。

The sudden rise of the Islamic State, a combination of terrorism and extremism, is the most prominent event recently to stir up the Middle East and savage Iraqi internal stability. During the previous decade in which the Islamic State evolved and developed, it made trouble for many countries. Right now Iraq is undoubtedly its No. 1 victim. The Islamic State threat had a direct political impact by prompting change in Iraq's central government and temporary reconciliation between Iraq 's central government and the Kurdish Regional Government(KRG) and may push Iraq in the direction of a loose confederation along ethnic and sectarian lines; the threat of the Islamic State had a direct impact on petroleum development by prompting the central government to adjust the production development plan for the Southern area of Iraq, and by providing chances for the KRG to acquire more oil fields and make the internal and external environments more favorable to it. The Islamic State itself also seized the opportunity to establish its own rudimentary petroleumindustry by seizure and smuggling. Since the US couldn't put enough military resources into Iraq and may have several diverging aims, direct threat by the Islamic State is very difficult to eliminate in the short term. Moreover,issues raised by the Islamic State may become new threats to the region in coming years.