摘要
为了更有效地降低滑坡灾害带来的损失、掌握滑坡滑动力变化情况,应用滑坡滑动力远程监测系统获得滑坡滑动力大小,根据滑动力时序变化特征,首次提出采用ARMA模型方法对其进行预测。通过以南芬露天铁矿2-1滑坡监测点滑动力时间序列为例进行研究,实现了该滑坡滑动力的短期预测。结果表明:预测值与实际值的误差率不超过3.5%,预测结果与实际情况符合较好,表明应用ARMA理论进行滑坡滑动力预测是可行的。
In order to reduce landslide disaster losses and master sliding force changes,ARMA model prediction method was first proposed based on sliding force variation of time,2-1 landslide monitoring point of Nanfen iron open pit is focused,and a short-term sliding force prediction was achieved of 2-1 point.The results showed that the error rate between predicted value and the actual value is not more than 3.5%,which indicates that the forecasting method is feasible.
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2014年第36期17-20,28,共5页
Science Technology and Engineering
关键词
滑坡
滑动力
ARMA
预测
landslide
sliding force
ARMA
prediction
