广西经济增长、人民币汇率变动及FDI相关性研究——基于VECM模型的分析

Empirical Study on Guangxi Economic Growth,FDI and RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation based on VECM

本文通过对广西1990～2012年经济数据进行实证检验,根据协整理论建立向量误差修正模型（VECM）,实证结果表明：广西经济增长、FDI及人民币汇率变动在样本期内存在显著的长期均衡关系,且人民币实际汇率和FDI对广西经济增长均具有正效应,但各自影响程度不同,人民币实际汇率是影响广西经济增长的显著因素,而FDI对经济增长的影响较弱.

Based on the Guangxi economic data from 1990 to 2012, this paper performs an empirical research on the relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment （FDI） and RMB exchange rate fluctuation. Ac- cording to the theory of co-integration and the results of vector error correction model （VECM）, it draws a conclusion that there is a long-term equilibrium between the three variables.The results also reveal that the RMB exchange rate and FDI have positive effects on economic growth in Guangxi, but their influence is in different levels. In fact, the RMB exchange rate is significantly effecting economic growth whereas FDI has relatively little influence on economic growth.