我国中药价格波动特征研究——以板蓝根为例

Research on Volatility Characteristics of Chinese Medicine Price in China-Radix Isatidis as an Example

近年来我国中药价格频繁波动,研究中药价格的波动特征有助于稳定我国中药价格,提高中医药服务的可及性。运用ARCH类模型对1990-2013年间的板蓝根月度价格数据进行分析,结果显示:板蓝根价格波动存在异方差效应和集簇性,其受到的外部冲击将对价格波动产生持久影响;价格波动不存在显著的高风险、高收益特征;涨价信息引发的价格波动程度要大于降价。在此基础上提出了提高信息化水平、规范市场秩序等建议。

In recent years, China＇s traditional Chinese medicine price experienced frequent fluctuation. Study on fluctuated characteristics of the traditional Chinese medicine price may help to stabilize traditional Chinese medicine price and promote the accessibility of traditional Chinese medicine services. ARCH model was applied to analyze the monthly price data of Radix Isatidis from 1990 to 2013. Study results showed that fluctuation of Radix Isatidis price had a heteroskedasticity and cluster. External shock may give its price a lasting impact on fluctuation, while fluctuations may not lead to high risk or high return. The price volatility may trigger significant fluctuation compared with price volatility. From the above analysis, the author put forward suggestions on improving informative level and regulating market order.