广东环境质量对经济增长的影响实证研究——基于库兹涅茨曲线

Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Environmental Quality on the Economic Growth in Guangdong Province Based on the Kuznets Curve

通过分析广东1980年来32年工业"三废"排放量变化情况,发现广东"三废"的排放总量在波动中呈现出不断上升的趋势。建立模型,将广东人均GDP与工业"三废"排放量进行拟合,EKC曲线并不完全符合传统的EKC曲线倒"U"形式。其计算结果显示:广东"三废"排放与人均GDP之间存在比较明显的三次曲线特征,工业"三废"产生量与人均GDP拟合曲线处于不断上升的阶段,说明广东处于由中期向后期转变的过程中,迫切需要加强环境治理,转变经济增长的结构,提升经济增长的质量,向生态宜居省份转变。

Through the analysis of industrial ＂three wastes＂ emissions changes of thirty - two years in Guangdong since 1980, it is found that the total emissions of industrial ＂three wastes＂ in fluctuation shows a rising trend in Guangdong. A model is built to fit EKC curve with the per capita GDP with industrial ＂three wastes＂ emissions, and the curve does not fully conform to the traditional form. The result shows： the three cubed curve is more obvious between industrial ＂three wastes＂ discharge and per capita GDP. The three cubed curve is in the rising stage, which explains that the industry of Guangdong is in the transition from middle to late, and has an urgent need to strengthen environmental governance structure, change the transformation of economic growth, improve the quality of economic growth, and build the ecological lirable provinces.