居民收入增长与GDP增长的互动关系仿真

Simulation of Interaction of Resident Income Growth and Economic Growth

将系统动力学与国民账户体系(SNA)中的资金流量核算整合起来,对我国的国民收入分配问题进行研究。基于资金流量表(实物部分)的构成,建立一个反映GDP增长与居民收入增长互动关系的系统动力学模型。仿真结果表明:按照现有趋势,直到2021年我国居民可支配收入增长率都将低于GDP增长率,但2022年以后居民收入增长率将反超GDP增长率。通过分别将企业部门劳动者报酬比重和政府部门劳动者报酬比重上调10%,发现企业部门劳动者报酬上调后,1998年以后居民收入增长率与GDP增长率的差距将加速缩小,且居民收入增长率会提前1年(2021)年反超GDP增长率。

Combining the system dynamics with the flow of funds accounts of System of National Accounts（SNA）, the distribution of national income is concerned with, which constructs a system dynamics model and responses the interrelation between the growth of GDP and resident income, in the frame of the flow of funds accounts（physical transaction）. The outcome of simulation indicates that the growth rate of resident income will be lower than the growth rate of GDP from the year of 1998 to 2021, but it will catch up with and surpass the growth rate of GDP after the year of 2022. Raising the proportion of compensation of employees of corporations and the proportion of compensation of employees of government separately by 10 points, it finds that the gap between the growth rate of resident income and the growth rate of GDP will narrow at an accelerating rate, and the growth rate of resident income will catch up with and surpass the growth rate of GDP one year ahead of schedule, after raising the proportion of compensation of employees of corporations.