技术进步在二氧化碳减排中的双刃效应——基于中国工业35个行业的经验证据

The double-edged effect of technological progress in carbon dioxide emissions reduction: empirical evidence from 35 sub-industrial sectors in China

基于产品质量改进思想构建了考虑能源效率改进与二氧化碳减排的经济增长模型,利用1999-2011年中国工业35个行业面板数据探讨技术进步通过影响经济增长与能源效率进而作用于二氧化碳减排的双刃效应。研究发现,技术进步在工业领域通过能源效率改进带来的减排效应尚不能抵消其推动经济增长带来的二氧化碳增长效应,但会使轻、重工业行业的二氧化碳排放强度向低端收敛;与轻工业相比,重工业的能源效率改进相对经济增长而言对二氧化碳减排的影响更强,以绿色技术创新带动重工业的能源效率提升将是未来节能减排工作的切入点与着力点。

Based on the product quality improvement theory,this article constructed an economic growth model which taken the energy efficiency improvements and carbon dioxide emission reduction into account.Then used the panel data of 35 sub-industrial sectors in China from 1999-2011,this paper discussed the double-edged effect of technological progress which through the energy efficiency improvements and economic growth to lower the carbon dioxide emissions in industry.Results indicate that the technological progress through the energy efficiency improvements is still unable to eliminate the industrial carbon dioxide emissions brought by the economic growth; however,it can lower the carbon dioxide emissions intensity of light industry and heavy industry.Compared with light industry,the energy efficiency improvements of heavy industry have stronger impact on carbon dioxide emissions than economic growth.By boosting the heavy industry＇s green technology innovation,to improve the energy efficiency should be the entry point and the focus of energy saving and carbon dioxide emission reduction in the future.