基于SD中国技术转移系统演化的动态模型研究

Study on dynamic model of the technology transfer system evolution of China based on system dynamics

技术转移是一个复杂的、非线性的动态系统,现有研究未能将技术转移系统的动态演化纳入到分析框架中。本文借鉴系统动力学方法对中国技术转移系统演化进行动态仿真研究,从纵向视角界定了技术转移系统包括技术研发系统、技术传播系统和技术应用系统及其边界,构建了技术转移系统动力学模型,运用2000年-2009年中国宏观数据,进行仿真实验。实验结果表明,政府的财政科技经费投入强度的增加带来的效果不如企业科技经费投入强度增加带来的效果,且技术传播子系统对于经费投入的敏感度并不高;最后,根据动态仿真实验结果,为促进中国技术转移系统的良性发展提出相应的政策建议。

The paper analyzed the content and structure of technology transfer system of china based on system dynamics.Technology transfer is a complex,nonlinear and dynamic system.The system dynamics model with respect to technology transfer system of china was used to support empirical analysis about the course of technology transfer system evolution.In this paper,the writer defined the technology transfer system of China from the longitudinal perspective,determined the technology transfer system boundary,and divided the subsystem ; Secondly,built the technology transfer system dynamics model used 2000-2009 Chinese macro data,and had the simulation experiment; Finally,put forward the corresponding policy recommendations according to the results of dynamic simulation experiment,in order to promote the virtuous development of the technology transfer system of China.