中国经济增长稳定性评价及其影响因素分析

Economic Evaluation of the Stability of China's Growth and Its Influencing Factors

经济增长稳定性对经济增长的质量和国民福利水平有重要影响。本文在评估改革开放以来我国经济增长稳定性的基础上,定量分析了各因素对经济增长稳定性的影响程度。分析结果表明,经济增长稳定性主要受产出缺口、需求结构、产业结构和投资者所有制结构等四大因素的影响,当产出缺口增加1%时,经济增长稳定指数降低0.97个点;当需求结构(最终消费率)提高1%时,经济增长稳定指数上升0.79个点;当产业结构提高1%时,经济增长稳定指数上升1.47个点;当所有制结构(国有经济占比)上升1%,经济增长稳定指数降低0.62个点。

The stability of economic growth has a significant impact on the quality of economic growth and national welfare. Based on its assessment of the stability of the growth of China＇s economic reform and opening up, this paper makes the quantitative analysis of each factor on economic growth stability. The results show that the stability of economic growth is mainly affected by the four factors of the output gap, the demand structure, industrial structure and investor ownership structure, etc., when the output gap increases by 1%, the index of economic growth stability decreased 0.97 points; when the structure of demand （final consumption rate） increased by 1%, the index of economic growth stability rose 0.79 points; when the industrial structure increased by 1%, the index of economic growth stability rose 1.47 points; when the ownership structure （state - owned economy accounting） increased by 1%, the index of economic growth stability decreased 0.62 points.