基于LMDI的能源消费碳排放因素分解——以陕西省为例

Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption of Shaanxi Province Based on LMDI

近十年间陕西省取得了跨越式的经济大发展,特别是作为丝绸之路经济带的＂桥头堡＂其经济发展已驶入了快车道。经济快速发展的同时必然带来碳排放总量的增加,测算了陕西省2002~2012年7种主要能源消费的碳排放量。使用LMDI法（对数平均迪氏分解法）把陕西省能源碳排放增量分解成人口、人均GDP、产业结构、能源消费结构与能源消费强度这五方面因素。研究得出,2002~2012年间除能源消费强度这一因素的累积效应为负外,其余四种因素的累积效应皆为正。使用逐年效应角度观察,人均GDP是碳排放增加的最大拉动因素,能源消费强度对碳排放具有较大的抑制作用。针对以上问题给出了相关政策建议。

In recent ten years, Shaanxi Province has achieved a rapid development of economy. The ＂bridge- head＂ is regarded as the economic belt of the Silk Road economic belt with fast growing. Meanwhile, it is being faced with problems of increasing carbon emissions. By using these coefficients and amount of energy consumption, carbon emissions from energy consumption of Shaanxi Province from 2002 to 2012 were calculated. Using the loga- rithmic mean weight Divisia method （LMDI） ,the carbon emissions were decomposed into five effects, i. e. ,popula- tion, per GDP, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, and energy consumption structure. The decomposi- tion results show that using year 2002 as the based year, the accumulated effect of energy consumption intensity was negative, whereas the accumulated effects of the other four factors were all positive. The per capita wealth was found to be the largest contributor of carbon emissions from the effect year by year. The fluctuation of its effect was gener- ally consistent with that of the energy consumption intensity. According to the mentioned problems, the related poli- cy recommendations are put forward.