中国粮食价格波动的区域福利效应研究

Regional Difference of Food Price Volatility Welfare Analysis:Based on the Producing and Sales Districts Perspective

粮食主产区与主销区利益失衡问题一直备受各界关注。利用1978~2011年粮食价格、产量、消费量等方面数据,在对主产区和主销区粮食价格和相关参数分析的基础上,采用麦诺特粮食价格福利效应模型考察粮价波动作用下主产区和主销区的福利差异及其机理。结果表明：1978~2011年间,粮食主产区总福利年均变化值为0.513%,大于主销区总福利年均变化值-0.008%;主产区总福利改善了16.923%,主销区总福利恶化了-0.262%。粮食价格波动促使主产区的总福利得到改善,主销区的总福利恶化。最后提出在粮食价格波动过程中政府应发挥产销区各自资源禀赋优势,加强产销区的利益协调等建议。

The interest imbalance problem between producing and sales districts attracts many concerns of the society. Through analysis of producing and sale districts＇ food prices and related parameters, we use grain produ- cing and sales districts＇ 1978 -2011 data on food production and consumption, analyzing food price volatility leads to producing and sales districts welfare differences and its mechanism. The results show that the grain price fluctua- tions made the total benefits of producing districts improved, while led to the deterioration of sales district＇ s wel- fare. Finally, we put forward the policy that government should make use of its resource endowment advantage; strengthen producing and sales districts interest coordination.