中国城乡居民消费行为的差异性——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

Difference in resident consumption behavior between the rural and urban areas in China--Empirical study based on inter-provincial panel data

基于1992—2012年中国31个省区的面板数据,本文利用变参数反应模型和滚动回归模型研究了城乡居民的消费行为。结果显示:考察期内,城镇居民和农村居民的超敏感系数分别为0.6510和0.6659,利用LC/PIH分析框架不能精确阐释中国城乡居民的消费行为;城镇的利率跨期弹性很不显著,而农村的利率跨期弹性利率显著为负;城乡居民的相对谨慎系数分别为11.890和10.025,城镇居民的相对谨慎系数先降后升,而农村居民的相对谨慎系数先升后降,这导源于城乡居民的消费环境出现了趋势性转变。

Based on the panel data from Chinese 31 provinces and regions over the 1992-2012 period, this paper uses varying parameter response model and scroll regression model to study the consumption behavior of urban and rural residents. The results show that： during the investigation period, the ultra-sensitive factors of urban residents and rural residents are 0.6510 and 0.6659 respectively, and we can not explain the consumption behavior of Chinese urban and rural residents exactly by using the LC/PIH analysis framework; the inter-temporal elasticity of urban interest rate is not significant, while that of the rural areas is negative significantly; and that the relatively cautious coefficients of urban and rural residents are 11.890 and 10.025 respectively. The relatively cautions coefficient of urban residents deceases initially and rises later, but that of rural residents goes in the opposite direction, which brings about the changes in the trends of the consumption environment for urban and rural residents.