北京市乡城流动人口长期居留意愿研究

On Beijing's Rural-urban Floating Populations Will of Permanent Residence

根据国家人口计生委2012年北京市流动人口动态监测调查数据,利用Binary Logistic回归分析方法,在控制了人口特征变量后,从居留能力和社会融合两个层面出发,对北京市乡城流动人口长期居留意愿的影响因素进行分析。结果表明,超过七成的北京市乡城流动人口具有在大城市长期居留的意愿;居留能力方面,拥有较多社会资本和较高收入会对长期居留意愿起到促进作用,居于生产性服务业比处于消费者服务业的流动人口居留意愿强,就业身份高的流动人口长期居留意愿强;社会融合方面,心理认同感强的乡城流动人口具有更高的长期居留意愿。

Using the dynamic monitoring survey data of floating population conducted by the state PFP commission in 2012 and the Binary Logistic regression analysis method, after controlling the variables of population characteristics, the paper analyzed influence factors on rural - urban migrants desire for long- term stay in Beijing from the two aspects as residence ability and social integration. The results showed that more than seventy percent of the people in Beijing prefer the long - term residence in big cities; as far as residence ability is concerned, more possession of social capital and higher income can stimulate the preference, and those in producer services have stronger desire than those in the consum- er services, and so do those of higher employment status; as to the social integration, the rural -urban migrants with stronger psychological identity have more aspiration of the long - term residence.