中国农村金融变迁与农产品物流发展动态关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Rural Financial Change and the Development of Agricultural Products Logistics in China

基于向量自回归模型对中国1990年至2013年农村金融变迁与农产品物流发展的长期动态关系进行实证研究。结果表明:农村金融发展对农产品物流发展起到了明显促进作用,农产品物流发展未对农村金融发展起到应有的拉动作用,验证了我国农村金融仍存在有效供给主体不足的问题。因此,从破除农村金融抑制现象、优化农村金融组织结构、培育面向农产品物流的多元化私人融资担保主体、大力发展农产品物流金融、创新农产品物流金融产品等方面,提出完善我国农村金融市场、促进农产品物流快速发展的相关对策建议。

This paper investigates the long-term dynamic relationship between rural financial change and the development of agricultural products logistics （APL） in China from 1990 to 2013 with VAR model .Results demonstrate that rural financial development has substantially promoted the development of APL ,but not vice versa .T his finding proves that the development of rural finance still lacks effective suppliers .Based on the current research ,this paper proposes five measures to promote the rural financial market and the devel-opment of APL ,namely ,eliminating the rural financial repression ,optimizing the configuration of rural fi-nancial organizations ,cultivating diversified private financing guarantee subjects for APL ,developing APL finance and innovating its products .