我国消费、投资、出口与物流发展动态关系研究

A Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Consumption,Investment,Export and Logistics Development

选取我国消费、投资、出口与物流发展表征指标，以1980～2012年时间序列数据为研究样本；利用Granger因果关系检验分析消费、投资、出口与物流发展间存在的内在联系；根据HP滤波法将各指标分为三阶段，即平稳发展期、波动显著期、调整过渡期；基于偏最小二乘法构建消费、投资、出口对物流发展三子周期的贡献测度模型。结果表明：在不同时期消费、投资、出口对物流业的产出弹性变化不一，与投资、出口的不稳定性相比，物流对消费的依赖性保持着持续上升的趋势。

This paper studies the indicators of consumption ,investment ,export and logistics development from 1980 to 2012 and their intrinsic relationship with the method of Granger causality test .These indica-tors are analyzed in three stages by Hodrick Prescott filter ,namely stationary phase ,fluctuation period , and transitional period .The study also constructs a measure model of the contribution of consumption ,in-vestment ,and export to the three sub-cycles of logistics development based on partial least squares .It is found that the output elasticity of consumption ,investment ,and export to logistics varies at different peri-ods of time .It is also proved that ,compared with instability of investment and export ,logistics’ depen-dence on consumption maintains a sustained increase .The findings provide a scientific guide for the govern-ment and the enterprises to take measures enhancing the three economic driving forces ’ contribution to lo-gistics output .