中国典型城市经济增长方式的特征与选择

Characteristics and Selection of Economic Growth Pattern of China's Typical Cities

碳排放控制与经济增长的双重挑战使中国经济增长方式选择成为令人关注的热点问题。本文利用1997—2011年中国53个地级以上城市数据,通过聚类分析将其分为四类城市,并分析不同类型城市经济增长方式演变的特征与路径选择。研究结果表明:从经济规模与碳排放量的关系来看,经济增长方式呈现出绿色增长、棕色增长和黑色增长三种类型,且不同类型城市经济增长方式演变轨迹上存在较大差异;经济增长方式的转换在总体上是一个由黑色增长、棕色增长向绿色增长螺旋式演进的过程;不同城市应综合考虑当前的经济条件和功能定位选择适合自身的经济增长方式。

Due to the challenges of economic growth and carbon emission reduction,the path of China’s economic growth has attracted public attention recently.In the paper,data on China’s 53 prefecture-level cities from 1997 to 2011 were used.Through cluster analysis,the cities were divided into four types,including traditional resource-based cities,mod-ern industrial cities,business and tourist cities,large comprehensive cities.Then,the evolution characteristics and selection of economic growth pattern of different types of cities were analyzed.It has been found that：（1）in terms of economic scale and carbon emissions,there are green growth,brown growth and black growth,which differs in evolution;（2）the economic growth pattern evolves spirally from black growth,brown growth to green growth wholly;（3）economic foundations and func-tion orientation should be considered,in order to choose a suitable pattern of economic growth.