住宅价格周期及其影响因素研究

Housing Price Cycle and Its Influencing Factors

基于中国2000年第一季度至2013年第四季度的住宅价格指标,本文运用三角图法划分住宅价格周期为扩张期、正常期和收缩期,选取经济基本面、住宅市场和货币市场三个构面的指标,进行二项probit和多元probit模型回归,研究表明在全国的层面上对住宅价格收缩影响显著的因素是住宅市场本身和利率,并且住宅市场本身的因素影响较大;而在扩张期,对其影响显著的因素较多,需要采取综合措施抑制住宅市场的扩张。

Based on the reality of domestic market,this study selects the residential market price from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2013 in China,and divides housing price cycles into expansion,normal and systolic periods by the triangular diagram.Using B-probit and M-probit model,this study selects factors of economic fundamentals,residen-tial market and money market to study the influencing factors.The empirical analysis shows that in national level,factors of housing market itself and the interest rates are significant in systolic period,and the housing market’s influence is bigger than that of economic fundamentals;but in the expansion period,the significant influence factors are more complex than that of systolic period.The government should take various policies to control housing market.