宗教信仰对农村社会养老保险参与行为的影响分析

Religious Believes and Farmers' Participation in Rural Endowment

基于具有全国代表性的微观调查数据,本文较细致地分析了宗教信仰对农村社会养老保险参与行为的影响。利用Probit模型以及工具变量法,本文发现,相比于无宗教信仰者,有宗教信仰的农民参与农村社会养老保险的概率要低6%。进一步的分析表明,宗教信仰对农村社会养老保险参与行为的负向影响主要针对的是具有较强个人储蓄性质的"老农保",而不是具有较强公共福利性质的"新农保"。这一结论表明,当前"新农保"的公共福利性质是吸引全体农户参与的一个十分重要的原因,而"老农保"的自我储蓄性质与政府财政的缺位导致了不少目标对象的流失,制约了农村社会养老保险的发展。因此,继续加大政府的相关投入是保持农村社会养老保险吸引力和活力的一个重要举措。

Based on a nationally representative household survey data set,this paper carefully analyzes the effects of farmers' religious believes on the participation in rural endowment.By building the Probit model and using instrumental variable approach,we find that,compared with non-believers,the religious believers are less likely by 6% to participate in the rural endowment.Further analysis shows that the impact of religious believes on the participation in rural endowment mainly for the 'old rural endowment' which is actually a self-saving social insurance,but not for the 'new rural endowment' which is a social insurance of public welfare.This result suggests that the public welfare in the 'new rural endowment' is an important driving force for farmers to participate,while the feature of self-saving and the absence of public finance in the 'old rural endowment' make its objects lost much,and block the development of rural endowment.The implication of those results is that enhancing the governments' input is the key to keep the attraction and vitality of the rural endowment at present.