我国财政赤字是否具有通货膨胀效应--来自有向无环图研究的新证据

Are Chinese Budget Deficits Inflationary:New Evidence from Directed Acyclic Graphs

本文首次结合最新发展的有向无环图(DAG)技术,对我国财政赤字是否具有通货膨胀效应这一问题展开深入的研究,并系统地考察了通货膨胀与宏观变量动态关系的渐进演变,以寻求除传统货币供应之外决定我国通货膨胀的其他重要因素。本文研究表明,我国货币政策在很大程度上被动适应于财政政策,从而增大了诱发财政驱动的通货膨胀的风险;现阶段我国通货膨胀不仅是一种"货币现象",同时也是一种"财政现象"。在我国货币政策缺乏独立性以及货币供应具有较强内生性的情形下,我们必须充分重视并发挥财政政策在稳定物价方面的重要作用,并有效地防范财政赤字诱发通货膨胀的潜在风险,以最终实现物价的长期稳定。

Using recently developed technique of Directed Acyclic Graphs, this paper investigates whether budget deficits are inflationary, and systematically analyzes the dynamic relationships between inflation and c variables. We find that the fact that monetary policy accommodates fiscal policy may trigger the risk of fiscal-driven inflation. The results also show that in China inflation is not only a monetary phenomenon but also a fiscal phenomenon. Our study suggest that since monetary policy is endogenous and lacks independ- ence, in order to achieve the goal of long-term price stability, we should pay enough attention to the role of fiscal policy in price determination, and avoid the risk of inflation driven by fiscal deficits.