1940年代苏南地区借贷市场的网络分析

An Analysis on the Net of Debit-credit Markets in the Southern Area of Jiangsu Province in 1940's

对于解放前的中国农村,通常认为借贷市场高度关联于土地市场。利用一个非常独特的数据,使用社会网络分析方法与指数随机图模型,本文对这一假设进行了实证分析。结果显示,在某种程度上,借贷市场与土地租赁市场是关联的;但是,这种关联性的程度并不高,在统计上也不具有显著性。在20世纪40年代的苏南农村,借贷市场与土地租赁市场是分离的。

In China's rural area of 1940 s, credit market was generally considered to be highly interlocked to other markets, especially to the land market. Using a quite unique data, this paper makes an empirical analysis of that hypothesis. The result shows that, in a way, credit market is associated with the land rental market; but the level of interlock is not high enough to reach the statistical significance.