中国双边金融服务贸易出口潜力及贸易壁垒研究

Empirical Research on China's Bilateral Financial Services Export Potential and Trade Barrier

本文利用OECD数据,基于扩展的引力模型拟合了一个"典型"经济体(包括中国)双边金融服务的出口流量方程,并在此基础上对中国双边金融服务贸易的出口潜力及贸易壁垒等问题进行了研究。结果发现:进出口双方的GDP、双边距离、进出口双方的经济自由度及是否使用共同语言会对中国双边金融服务出口产生显著的影响;中国对主要的金融服务出口市场(包括中国香港、美国、卢森堡等)普遍贸易过度,而对小型的出口市场则普遍贸易不足;中国双边金融服务出口贸易过度的经济体,贸易壁垒水平较低,而贸易不足的经济体,贸易壁垒水平则相对较高。

Using the OECD data, the paper fits an equation of bilateral financial services ex- port, and then makes an empirical analysis of China＇s bilateral financial services export potential and trade barrier. The paper finds that as following. Factor significantly influencing China＇s bilateral fi- nancial services export, including GDP, economic freedom of the importer and exporter, bilateral distance and the dummy variable whether they use a common language. China＇s financial services ex- port to its major partners is ＂excessive trade＂, such as Hong Kong, USA, Luxemburg et al. However, the export to the small markets is generally ＂insufficient trade＂. The level of trade barrier of economies with ＂excessive trade＂ is low. While, the level of trade barrier is relatively high with those ＂insufficient trade＂ economies.