卢布暴跌成因、影响及中俄合作机遇

Causes and Impact of the Russian Ruble Crash and Opportunities for Cooperation between China and Russian

在乌克兰危机引发地缘政治局势紧张、欧美等西方国家联手制裁、国际油价大幅下跌的背景下,俄罗斯资金大幅流出,主权信用评级下调,卢布更是出现暴跌,缺乏内生动力的经济正陷入巨大困境。文章认为,俄当前经济形势是多种因素叠加的结果,由于自身结构性矛盾加剧和外部需求减少的双重冲击,政策调整空间有限。在未来3年,影响俄经济的大部分不利因素仍将存在,其经济仍将在底部徘徊。面对内忧外困,俄罗斯急于寻求外交突破,而中俄合作则面临新的机遇,中国未来需把握节奏,掌控风险,稳步推进。

The year 2014 is undoubtedly full of troubles for Russia. In the context of the geopolitical tensions triggered by the Ukraine crisis, economic sanctions imposed jointly by the Western world such as Europe and the United States, as well as the dive in oil prices, a substantial amount of capital outflows from Russia, its sovereign credit rating is downgraded, and the ruble plunged. Due to insufficient internal impetus to drive economic growth, Russia＇s economy is in great difficulties. As this is the result of mixed factors, there will be limited space for policy adjustment due to the double whammy of intensified internal structural contradictions and decreased external demand. In the next three years, most of the negative factors will remain, and Russia＇s econo- my will continue to edge along the bottom. Faced with internal and external challenges, Russia is eagerly seeking a diplomatic breakthrough, and it will surely bring new opportunities for cooperation between China and Russia. However, it is very important for the two sides to set the pace, control risks, and proceed in a steady manner.