退休与城镇家庭消费:基于断点回归设计的经验证据

Retirement and Urban Household Consumption:Based on Empirical Evidences of Regression Discontinuity Design

本文基于国家统计局城镇住户调查(UHS)2000—2009年的家户数据,利用退休制度对城镇男性户主退休决策的外生冲击,在断点回归设计框架下采用工具变量参数估计法和非参数估计法检验了我国是否存在退休消费骤降现象,并探讨了其原因。结果表明:退休显著降低了城镇家庭非耐用消费支出的9%、与工作相关支出的25.1%、文化娱乐支出的18.6%和在家食物支出的7.4%,消费骤降主要源于退休后与工作相关支出和文化娱乐支出的减少;企业职工、单身独居、教育水平较低和储蓄不足的老年家庭,退休后更易于降低非耐用消费支出;从非耐用消费支出中减去与工作相关支出、文化娱乐支出、在家食物支出和医疗支出之后,家庭其他消费支出在退休前后是基本平滑的。

Based on the data from urban household survey（UHS） in year 2000 to 2009,this paper tests whether retirement consumption puzzle existing in China and explores its reasons, using two estimation methods of IV parametric and non- parametric in regression discontinuity framework and taking advantages of the exogenous shock on urban households retirement decision made by mandatory retirement policies. We found that retirement reduces total non-durable expenditures by about 9 percent, reduces household work-related expenditures by about 25.1 percent, reduces entertainment expenditures by about 18.6 percent and food expenditures at home by 7.4 percent; The reduction of expenditure over retirement is mainly caused by the reduction of work-related expenditures and entertainment expenditures; Households of male head, such as company worker, single, low-educated and low-saving are easy to reduce non-durable consumption over retirement. After excluding above four components, retirement hasn＇t significantly negative effect on the remaining expenditure, consumption smoothing hypothesis can be established.