中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量测算及影响因素研究

China's Production-Based and Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions and Their Determinants

本文基于WIOD提供的世界投入产出表序列,采用MRIO模型测算和比较分析了1995—2009年中国生产侧碳排放量和消费侧碳排放量,并通过SDA方法考察了生产侧和消费侧碳排放增长的影响因素。结果发现,研究期间中国生产侧碳排放和消费侧碳排放均出现大幅的增长,但生产侧排放明显高于消费侧排放,"入世"后二者差距呈迅速扩大趋势;中国大量的生产碳排放服务于美、欧、日等发达经济体的最终需求,即存在突出的"发达国家消费与中国污染"问题,而中国消费侧排放主要发生在国内。结构分解结果表明,中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量的快速增加主要是由国内最终需求规模的增长和生产部门投入结构变化带来的;而国内生产部门碳排放强度的下降则是有效抑制中国生产侧和消费侧排放量增加的最主要因素,但这种抑制作用近年来有减弱趋势。此外,中国与其他经济体的前向产业关联、发达经济体和发展中经济体最终需求来源地结构的变化及其需求规模的增长也是导致中国生产侧碳排放增加的主要因素。本文研究结论对于国际碳排放责任分配和国内节能减排、低碳经济转型具有重要的政策启示。

This paper estimates China＇s production and consumption-based carbon emissions during 1995-2009 based on multi-regional input-output model and world input-output database and applies structural decomposition analysis （SDA） to investigate relative impact of various factors on their changes. Results show that China＇s production and consumption-based carbon emissions increased significantly and production-based emissions were higher than consumption-based emissions in the study period especially after China＇s accession to the WTO. Substantial emissions in China＇s production-based emissions served final demands of developed countries while most of China＇s consumption emissions were generated domestically. Results of SDA show that growth of domestic final demand and change of domestic production structure were two main drivers of China＇ production and consumption-based emissions. The change of emissions intensity of production in China greatly offset the increase of production and consumption-based emissions. Other important drivers of china＇s production- based emissions include enhancement of China＇s forward international industry linkage, growth of final demands abroad and increase of their production sources in China.