官员任期、交流与服务业发展:自1994～2012年数据观察

Official Term, Official Exchange and the Development of Service Industry:Observation from the Data of 1994～2012

利用1994～2012年各省（区、市）任职的党政一把手的个人信息及服务业发展的数据．实证检验省级官员的任期限制和交流对地方服务业发展的影响。结果发现：官员的任期限制总体上对地方服务业发展有积极的推动作用，且两者呈倒U型的关系；官员交流对服务业发展也有正面的影响，但在区域之间存在明显的差异。基于此，应稳定省级高级官员的任期，在．任期内给予其明确的激励目标和预期指引；防止官员交流中官员行为的短期化和形式主义。

Using a provincial panel data between 1994 and 2012 ,which covers detailed information for all the provincial governors （including provincial party secretary, mayor for municipal cities, and chairman for autonomous regions）, we made an empirical research to test the impact of the provincial governors＇ tenure and rotation on the development of service sector. As the results showed that, a positive impact on local service sector development is found for both term limits and rotation of governors across regions. It also finds that there is an inversed U relationship between term limits and service sector development. Rotation also has a positive impact on service sector development, but varies across different regions. Based on these, we proposed some policy suggestions. First of all, the central government should give the provincial governors clear incentive target and career guidance in a steady tenure. Furthermore, the short-sighted and formalistic behavior of the rotated governors should be avoided.