山西省旅游市场规模预测——基于灰色系统理论的分析

The Tourism Market Forecasting of Shanxi Province——Research based on grey system theory

随着经济社会转型跨越式的发展,山西省对第三产业尤其是旅游行业的发展给予高度重视。文章基于山西省2005—2012年国内外旅游接待人数的数据资料,利用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型对山西省未来五年的旅游市场规模进行预测并对其进行了残差检验、后验差检验和小误差概率检验。预测结果表明山西省未来几年旅游业总体市场规模仍然保持快速增长的趋势。最后根据预测结果对山西省旅游业的发展提出了相应的建议。

With the great-leap-forward development of economic and social. Shanxi Province paying more attention on the development of the third industry especially the tourism industry. Based on the data of tourism market of domestic and overseas from 2005 to 2012, this paper forecast the next five years＇tourism market scale of Shanxi Province by using the grey system GM （1,1） model and checkout the results use the methods of residual test, after test and small error probability test. The predicted results show that the tourism market scale will maintain a rapid growth trend in Shanxi Province in the next few years. Finally, this paper put forward the corresponding suggestions according to the results of the forecasting.