摘要
Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6. 02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross -country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that： （i） the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; （ii） the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; （iii） both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.
Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6. 02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross -country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that： （i） the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; （ii） the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; （iii） both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.
