2035年世界经济展望

Prospects for the World Economy in 2035

本文对经济增长的惯性要素在未来二十年的发展变化趋势进行预测。笔者关注人口要素(老龄化以及人口增速呈级差方式下降)、经济增长以及随着收入增加在支出模式上的改变。世界将变得更加富有,与此同时,食物、能源以及其他资源的需求也将不断增长。这些需求将通过增加供给、节能环保以及技术创新来满足而不会出现短缺。传染性疾病、恐怖行动和地区局部战争将会造成巨大的冲击,但是世界经济能够抵御冲击。中国将会崛起,而欧洲和日本的相对重要性则会下降。

This paper projects the inertial elements of economic growth forward two decades,focusing on demographic factors(aging,differential decline in population growth),on economic growth,and on patterns of expenditure as incomes rise. The world will be significantly richer,with increased demand for food,energy,and other resources. These demands will be satisfied by increased supply,conservation,and innovation away from scarce products. There will be significant disturbances through contagious disease,terrorist actions,and local wars,but the world economy will be resilient to such shocks. China will rise and Europe and Japan will decline in relative importance.