中俄跨境人民币结算研究——基于人民币国际化和美欧制裁俄罗斯的双重背景分析

Research on Sino-Russian Cross-Border RMB Settlement :Analysis Based on the Background of RMB——Internationalization and Sanctions Against Russia by U.S. and Europe

在2014年11月举行的亚太经合组织会议上中俄两国计划增加以人民币结算的贸易规模,这是在人民币国际化道路上迈出的重要一步。我国应该在权衡人民币国际化成本收益并确保收益大于成本的条件下接受人民币国际化带来的福利损失,同时通过提高人民币的结算支付功能奠定人民币计价和储备功能形成的基础,积极培育跨境人民币结算的市场环境。中俄跨境人民币结算具有两个特殊性:俄罗斯对人民币的接纳程度较低并且俄罗斯积极推行卢布国际化战略。在美欧等国制裁和石油价格下跌的冲击下,中俄货币互换有潜在的汇率风险,并且制裁影响到俄罗斯国际金融中心建设和人民币在俄离岸拓展。但制裁也给中俄本币结算拓展了能源合作领域、向俄提供人民币借贷、对俄直接投资等重大机遇。我国应该尽快完善中俄人民币清算机制安排,鼓励俄罗斯商业银行投资我国证券市场,充分发挥金砖国家开发银行的作用,进一步挖掘中俄投资基金的潜力,有力地促进人民币对俄直接投资和资本输出。

The 22 ndAPEC meeting has deepened the consensus of constructing the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 st century Maritime Silk Road,bringing a broader platform for Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation,also with historical opportunities for Sino-Russian cross-border RMB settlement. The paper demonstrated the correctness of RMB internationalization by logic reasoning and practical effects,discussed the development,feature,and problems of Sino-Russian local currency settlement,analyzed the impact of sanctions against Russia by U.S. and the Europe after the Ukraine Crisis. It was pointed that the sanctions posed exchange rate risk against Sino-Russian local currency exchanges and negatively affected the development of Russian international financial center and RMB off-shore activities in Russia. However,there were also opportunities for local currency settlement in the area of energy cooperation,RMB loans,and direct investment to Russia. In the end,suggestions for pushing the development of Sino-Russian cross-border RMB settlement had been given.