中国区域二氧化碳排放增长的驱动因素——工业化、城镇化发展的视角

Driving Factors about the Growth of Regional Carbon Emissions in China——From the Perspective of the Development of Industrialization and Urbanization

随着中国工业化、城镇化快速发展,由此所带来的CO2排放问题日渐严重。本文使用引入工业化、城镇化因素的LMDI"两层完全分解法",将CO2排放变化分解为七大因素效应,从工业化、城镇化发展视角分析了中国1995-2012年30个省份七大部门的CO2排放增长特征。研究发现:经济规模效应和能源强度效应是主导中国CO2排放变化以及造成区域显著差异的根本原因。经济规模扩张是促进CO2排放的决定因素,在绝大部分省份工业化水平低于60%的情况下,经济规模效应仍将继续扮演推动CO2排放增长的最重要因素。反观城镇化与经济规模效应的倒U型关系,已有7个CO2排放大省城镇化水平超过60%的拐点,未来由此所带来的CO2排放增长压力有望得到缓解。

With the huge development of China＇s industrialization and urbanization,carbon emission has become a growing problem.This paper uses LMDI ＂two-level perfect decomposition＂ method which contains the factors of industrialization and urbanization to decompose the change of carbon emission into seven factor effects.Then,this paper analyzes the increasing features of carbon emission in 7departments of 30 provinces during 1995-2012 from the perspective of the development of industrialization and urbanization.The empirical findings suggest that：Economic scale effect and energy intensity effect are the primary determinants the change and significant difference of regional carbon emissions.Among the seven factor effects,economic scale effect is the deciding factor of promoting carbon emissions.Moreover,economic scale effect will continue to play this role when industrialization in most provinces are less than 60%.However,considering the Ushaped relationship between urbanization and economic scale effect,the pressure would be relieved from urbanization in the future because the urbanization in seven sample provinces with large emissions are more than 60% which is the inflection point.