市场信心、经济波动与财政政策

Market Confidence,Economic Fluctuation and Fiscal Policy

市场信心变化是否会造成经济波动,如何选择财政调控策略稳定市场信心进而保持宏观经济稳定,文章利用矢量自回归模型和季度数据,在控制相关变量基础上对此进行的研究表明,市场信心变化对我国宏观经济的滞后影响非常显著,其中企业信心变化与消费者信心变化对宏观经济产生影响的时间路径存在明显差异,虽自1999年以来,积极财政政策对提振市场信心发挥了积极作用,但作用效果在不同政策工具之间差异明显。紧缩性财政收入政策虽对市场信心具有反向抑制效应,但并不显著,扩张性支出政策虽在经济低迷时期有助于提振市场信心,但成效在不同支出项目间差异悬殊,其中,科教文卫等社会性支出的增加对市场信心将会产生积极影响,而行政费的膨胀却会显著恶化市场信心。

This paper aims to find out whether market confidence changes will result in economic fluctuations, and how to choose fiscal regulation policies to stabilize market confidence so as to maintain macroeconomic stability. We employ the vec- tor autoregressive model（VAR） to analyze quarterly data based on the control of relevant variables. We find that： The lagged ef- fect of market confidence changes on China＇s macro-economy is significant, whereas the time paths of the effects of business confidence changes and consumer confidence changes on the macro-economy are obvious different. Although the proactive fis- cal policy has been playing a positive role in boosting market confidence since 1999, the effects are remarkable different among policy instruments. The tightening fiscal revenue policy has the reverse depressing effect on market confidence, but not significant. The expansionary expenditure policy facilitates to boost market confidence in the economic downturn, but the effects among different expenditure items vary greatly. Among them, the increase of science, education, culture, heahh and other social spending have a positive impact on market confidence, while the expansion of administrative costs signifi- cantly deteriorates market confidence.