消费拉动经济增长的前景——基于消费—人力资本—增长的途径分析

The Prospect of Consumption-Driven Economic Growth——An Analysis Based on the Model of Consumption-Labor Capital-Growth

消费能否拉动经济增长还存在比较大的争议,重要原因在于消费拉动经济增长的机理尚不清楚。基于对消费—增长不同观点的述评,构建了消费—人力资本—增长的理论模型,即消费是维系劳动力简单生产、实现劳动力再生产、促进劳动人力资本积累的基本途径;消费带来的人力资本积累直接促进了经济增长。在这一传导机制的基础之上,利用黄金储蓄率方法对我国潜在消费规模进行初步估算,估算消费释放有可能带来的增长效应,并就消费拉动经济增长提出相关建议。

It is still under hot discussion whether consumption can lead to economic growth or not.The underlying reason is that the mechanism has remained unclear that explains consumption promotes economic growth.On the basis of different opinions on the rela-tionships between consumption and growth,a theoretical model of Consumption-Labor capital-Growth is constructed,which indicates that consumption is the basic way to maintain simple labor production,ensure labor reproduction,and promote the accumulation of hu-man labor capital.The accumulation of Human labor capital brought about by consumption directly promotes economic growth.The pa-per,based on this transmission mechanism,assesses preliminarily China＇s consumption potential by utilizing the standards of golden savings rate,then makes an estimate of the possible growth effect caused by the release of consumption potential,and finally puts forward suggestions for consumption-driven economic growth.