企业生存状况与中国经济波动——基于动态新凯恩斯主义的视角

Firm Dynamics and Economic Fluctuations in China——A Dynamic Perspective of New Keynesian

基于一个包含企业进入和退出的双重名义刚性NKMP-DSGE模型,考察了中国经济波动问题。研究发现,与已有研究相比,外生冲击可以通过影响企业进入和退出进而影响宏观经济。总需求冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数显著支持了我国政府在金融危机期间采用非常规货币政策刺激经济的做法;进入成本冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明,降低融资难度和融资成本,提高政府公共服务效率,将有利于新企业的建立和经济增长。这一结论显著支持了央行定向降准的做法。

This paper,based on a dual-nominal rigidities NKMP-DSGE model with firm dynamics,investigates the economic fluctuations in China.The research finds that compared to other studies,exogenous shocks may affect firm dynamics which further affects the whole economy.The Bayesian impulse response function of aggregate demand shocks remarkably support the unconventional govern-ment-posing monetary policy to stimulate economy during the financial crisis.Also,the Bayesian impulse response function of the en-try cost shocks argues that providing more easily available financing,reducing financing cost and improving the efficiency of public service can benefit the establishment of new enterprises and thus the economic growth.This conclusion significantly supports the policy of directional lower the reserve requirement ratio.