摘要
国际气候谈判中,美国等发达国家把中国承诺强制减排目标作为其加入全球减排协定的前提,那么如果我国加入全球碳交易市场,将会对我国产生怎样的影响呢?本文基于Ramsey最优增长模型和博弈论思想,构建世界诱导技术变化混合(WITCH)模型,模拟评估全球碳交易市场对我国经济-能源-气候系统的影响,结果表明:12014年(GCM2014情景)和2020年(GCM2020情景)加入全球碳交易市场,到2100年我国GDP比常规情景(BAU情景)下分别减少6.42%和10.22%,说明加入全球碳市场将会对我国经济增长产生较大的负面影响,越早加入负面影响越小;2BAU、GCM2014和GCM2020三种情景下,2100年我国总投资分别达到98.48亿美元、85.59亿美元和85.13亿美元,其中我国能源研发投资预计分别为32.9亿美元、82.5亿美元和96亿美元,说明对我国总投资的影响差异不是很大,但对能源技术研发投资却有快速而显著的促进作用;3BAU、GCM2014和GCM2020三种情景下,2100年我国一次能源消费分为270 EJ、247 EJ和254 EJ,说明全球碳交易市场可以减少我国一次能源的总消费,但总量减少不是太显著,却能显著减少我国的煤炭等化石能源的消费量,因为GCM2014和GCM2020情景下,2100年煤炭消费仅占到我国一次能源消费的10%左右,而BAU情景下煤炭仍占59%;4全球碳交易市场可以比较显著的降低我国能源强度和碳排放强度;5全球碳交易市场的建立能有效降低全球气温,但不能将气温升幅控制在2℃范围以内。因此,我国要结合本国国情和实际,先建立国内碳交易市场,避免在国际压力下盲目承诺加入全球碳交易市场,至少2020年前我国不应该加入全球碳交易市场。
In international climate negotiations, the United States and other developed countries urge China to make compulsory commitment. Will global carbon market have a great impact on China.9 Based on Ramsey optimal growth model and game theory, the paper builds a world induced technical change hybrid （WITCH） model and evaluates the impact of global carbon market on China＇ s economic-energy-climate system. Its result shows that ： （ 1 ） Comparing with business as usual （ BAU）, China＇ s GDP will decrease 6.42% and 10.22% in 2100 respectively if China joins global carbon market in 2014 （GCM2014 scenario） and 2020 （GCM2020 scenario） , which means that the global carbon market will have a larger negative impact on China＇ s economic growth. （2） China＇ s total investment will be 9. 848 billion USD, 8. 559 billion USD and 8. 513 billion USD in the scenario of BAU, GCM2014 and GCM2020. However, China＇ s investment in energy R＆D will be 3.29 billion USD, 8.25 billion USD and 9.6 billion USD in the three scenarios. The impact of global carbon market on China＇ s total investment is not very big, but it plays a significant role in promoting China＇s energy technology R＆D investment. （3） In the scenarios of BAU, GCM2014 and GCM2020, China＇ s primary energy consumption will be 270 EJ, 247 EJ and 254 EJ in 2100, which means the global carbon market could reduce China＇ s total primary energy consumption, but the amount is not too significant. However, it could significantly reduce coal consumption, because coal accounts for 10% of China＇ s primary energy consumption in GCM2014 and GCM2020 scenarios, coal still account for 59% in the BAU scenario in 2100 ; （4） The global carbon market can significantly reduce China＇ s fossil fuel consumption and energy intensity, carbon intensity. （5） The establishment of global carbon market can effectively reduce the global temperature, but fails to control the temperature rise within the range of 2 ℃. Therefore, China should establish a domestic carbon market at first and should not join the global carbon market before 2020.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第1期32-39,共8页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目"基于MRIO模型的中国对外贸易隐含碳及减排政策研究"(编号:71103066)
教育部哲社重大课题攻关项目"我国碳排放交易市场研究"(编号:11JZD025)
