引入碳价格后中国出口贸易成本的变化

Impacts of Carbon Price on Energy Cost in China International Trade

应对气候变化的政策手段多种多样,市场机制手段是目前应用广泛的政策工具之一。国际碳交易的实践尤其是欧盟ETS的运行效果显示,电力及一些能源加工转换行业通常会因为承担了碳交易的成本,而会导致其下游产品价格的发生变动,一般表现在下游电力价格的增加,因此会使得其他行业的生产成本受电力价格的上涨而增加。因此碳价格机制的引入对于整个经济发展的成本产生一定的影响,而我国目前以出口贸易为导向的经济现状,势必使得碳价格影响到出口贸易的产品成本上。本文主要利用我国2005年和2007年的投入产出表,测算我国出口贸易产品能源成本的变化。结果显示我国出口产品的能源成本占每年出口额比重约为13%,若扣除掉消耗进口中间产品的因素,仅仅考虑国内中间投入产品的能源成本,则出口产品中的能源成本比重下降至9%-10%左右,其中电力的成本约占整个能源成本的60%以上,若由于碳价格机制的引入导致电力成本上涨50%,则使得我国出口能源成本的至少上涨一半以上,这将大幅度降低我国出口产品的国际竞争力。因此我国出口贸易的主要部门一方面需要不断加强技术研发投入,提升其生产技术水平,降低能源成本的比重,提高单位产品的能源效率;另一方面由于我国外贸存在较大的顺差,也要不断调整出口产品的结构,配合国内产业政策的调整,降低能源成本较高产品的出口,优化出口产品的结构,提高出口产品的科技含量和附加值,整个贸易政策调整优先向竞争力导向转变。

Among the diverse policy instruments to address climate change, market mechanism is most widely used. International carbon trading practices, especially the EU Emissions Trading Scheme （ETS）, indicate that carbon trading costs in power and other energy processing and conversion sectors bring change to downstream product prices. Typically reflected in increased tariff of downstream electricity, the change subsequently pushes up the cost of production in other sectors. Hence, the introduction of a carbon pricing mechanism will influence the cost of the overall economic development. For an export-oriented economy in China, it is bound to affect the product costs of export trade. Based on the input-output tables in 2005 and 2007, this paper examines the energy costs of export trade products in China, and finds that energy costs account for about 13% of the annual export value. If only domestic intermediate inputs are considered and imported ones deducted, the proportion fails to 9% - 10%, while electricity cost takes up over 60% of the whole energy costs. Given an increase of electricity costs by 50% with the introduction of the carbon pricing mechanism, the energy costs will be at least doubled, which will massively cut the international competitiveness of China＇ s export products. Export trade sectors therefore need to step up the R ＆ D input to enhance their technological strength, and thereby lower energy costs by increasing energy efficiency per unit of product. Meanwhile, in view of the large foreign trade surplus, it is necessary to constantly adjust the structure of export products. In line with the adjustment of domestic industrial policy, the export structure should be optimized by reducing energy-intensive products, so as to improve the technological content and added value of exports, while the overall adjustment of trade policies is oriented to competitiveness.