中国低碳试点城市的碳排放现状

Study on Present Status of Carbon Emissions in China's Low-carbon Pilot Cities

本文以国家发展和改革委员会公布的两批低碳试点城市(共36个)为研究对象,基于其2005-2011年间的单位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放数据总结其碳排放水平,从区域分布、经济水平和人口规模三个方面分析了全国范围内低碳试点城市的碳排放现状。通过"十一五"期间碳减排成效和"十二五"期间碳减排目标两个方面分析了低碳试点城市的碳排放现状,并推测了低碳试点城市2015年的碳排放水平。研究显示,"十一五"期间低碳试点城市单位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放均高于全国平均水平。2011年低碳试点城市单位GDP的CO2排放和人均CO2排放均高于各城市所在省份的平均水平。低碳试点城市单位GDP的CO2排放平均水平从东部到西部逐渐升高。人均收入高于全国平均水平的低碳试点城市中92%的城市的人均CO2排放高于全国水平。而随着城市常住人口规模的扩大,试点城市单位GDP的CO2排放逐渐降低,人均CO2排放却随着城市常住人口规模的扩大呈U型分布,其中大型城市的人均CO2排放水平最低。同时通过与同类地区对比分析,研究表明试点城市的低碳工作成效和减碳目标普遍优于同类地区。除直辖市外,32个低碳试点城市中28个城市2010-2011年单位GDP的CO2排放下降幅度和2015年单位GDP的CO2排放节能目标高于所在省份。在城镇化速度继续增加和经济总量保持上升的趋势下,到2015年低碳试点城市单位GDP的CO2排放虽然下降,但人均CO2水平仍呈上升趋势。我国的低碳试点城市建设任重道远。

In this study, we investigated CO2 emissions levels in 36 cities, which are national pilot cities for low-carbon development announced by the National Development and Reform Commission （NDRC）. Based on CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita data during 2005 -2011, we summarized the carbon emissions level of the low-carbon pilot cities and evaluated the carbon emissions from the perspective of regional distribution, economic development and urban population scale. Their decrease range of CO2 emission reduction daring the ＇ 11 th Five Year Plan＇ Period and future targets of CO2 emission reduction during the ＇ 12th Five Year Plan＇ Period was compared with provinces where the cities locate. Furthermore, the paper measured the CO2 emission levels of low-carbon pilot cities in 2015. Results reveal that CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita of low-carbon pilot cities were both higher than those of the national average level during the ＇ 11 th Five Year Plan＇ Period. Low-carbon pilot cities＇ CO~ emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per capita in 2011 were both higher than those of their comparable areas and the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP gradually rises from east to west. 92% of the low-carbon pilot cities whose per capita income were higher than the national average, have a higher CO2 emissions per capita than the national average. With the increase of urban resident population scale, pilot cities＇ CO2 emissions per unit of GDP gradually reduced, nevertheless, their CO2 emissions per capita was ＇ U＇ -type distribution at the lowest point in large scale cities. Results show that pilot cities＇ low-carbon performances and future carbon reduction targets are better than their belonged provinces. Expect 4 Municipalities, there are 28 pilot cities whose decrease range of CO2 emission reduction and future targets of CO2 emission reduction in 2010 -2011 were higher than their provinces. This paper also measured the CO2 emission levels of low-carbon pilot cities in 2015 based on the population, urbanization and economy development goals in the ＂12th Five Year Plan＂ Period, with 2001 as the base year. The result shows that with the growth of urbanization and economy, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP of low-carbon pilot cities would decrease, but CO2 emissions per capita levels are still on the rise. It still has a challenge that those low-carbon cities would undergone a high CO2 emission process.