《大气污染防治行动计划》实施对经济与环境的潜在影响

Potential Economy and Environment Impacts of China's National Air Pollution Control Action Plan

基于全产业链视角,采用资源环境投入产出模型,定量化模拟了在现有产业技术条件下国家《大气污染防治行动计划》(下称《计划》项目)实施对社会经济和资源环境的潜在影响.结果表明,《计划》项目实施:1将拉动我国GDP累计增加20 570×108元,非农就业岗位累计增加260×104个,起到刺激经济发展、促进社会就业等作用;2将直接带动环保装备制造、建筑安装、综合技术服务、锅炉技术改造以及新能源汽车等相关行业的发展,同时通过产业链关联间接带动金属冶炼压延加工业,化学工业(不含塑料和橡胶,下同),非金属矿物制品业,电力、热力的生产和供应业等传统高耗能、高污染产业的发展;3将累计新增SO2、NOx、烟粉尘排放量分别为121.3×104、96.0×104和60.7×104t,年均新增排放量相当于预期减排能力的3.8%、2.2%、2.2%,主要集中于电力、热力的生产和供应业,金属冶炼压延加工业,非金属矿物制品业,化学工业以及石油加工炼焦核燃料加工业等5个行业;4将累计新增煤炭、水资源消耗量分别为1.6×108和108.2×108t,二者的年均新增消耗量相当于2010年消耗量的1.05%和0.36%,主要集中于电力、热力的生产和供应业及金属冶炼压延加工业.未来应加快环保产业发展,不断优化产业结构,进一步提高火电、钢铁等国民经济基础性行业污染治理效率和资源使用效率,从产品供给角度减少大气治理活动对环境的影响.

A resource and environment input-output model using a full industry chain, was applied to quantitatively simulate the potential economy and environment impacts of China＇s National Air Pollution Control Action Plan （ NAPCAP）. The results show that： 1 ） The NAPCAP will bring about 2057 billion CNY of GDP increase and 2.6 million new jobs in China. 2） Some industries wit1 be directly promoted by the implementing of the NAPCAP, such as pollution-abatement equipment, construction, integrated technical services, boiler technology supply and new energy vehicles. Some traditional pollution-intensive industries, however, will be indirectly stimulated, as well, including metal smelting and rolling, chemical products （not containing plastic and rubber） , non-metallic mineral products and electric and heat power. 3 ） Cumulative SO2 , NOx and soot-dust emissions will increase by 1. 213, 0. 960 and 0. 607 million tons respectively during the NAPCAP period （20i2-2017）. The annual average increments account for 3.＇ 8% , 2.2% and 2.2%, respectively, of the emission reduction potentials lead hy the NAPCAP, The increased emissions will mostly be concentrated in industries of electric power, metal smelting and rolling, non-metallic mineral products, chemical products and petroleum processing. Moreover, cumulative coal and freshwater consumptions will increase by 0. 16 billion tons and 10.82 billion tons respectively, with annual average increments accounting for 1.05% and 0. 36% of their average annual consumption in China. The increased consumptions mostly lie in industries of electric power and metal smelting and rolling. In the future, China should speed up the environmental protection industry, and constantly optimize the industrial structure and further improve the efficiency of resource using and pollutant removing, especially in electric power, metal smelting and rolling, and other basic industries, to drastically reduce the potential impacts on resources and environment lead by the NAPCAP.