云南菜籽油供给缺口分析及其需求预测

Supply Gap Analysis of Yunnan Rapeseed Oil and Its Demand Forecast

通过对云南省菜籽油供需情况的分析,表明当前菜籽油自给率仅45%左右,造成菜籽油供给缺口的影响因素主要是:人口总量增加及城镇化进程加快、人们生活水平提高和消费结构改善、油菜籽总产量少、菜籽油产量有限等。再用Logistic阻滞增长模型预测云南省未来人口变化,进而对云南省未来菜籽油消费需求进行预测。结果显示:云南省未来人口上限为5574万人,到2020年人口数量为4914万人,菜籽油的需求量将达到60万t,未来菜籽油的供给缺口约为自给量的2倍。最后提出保障云南省食用油供给安全的措施建议:扩大油菜种植面积并充分挖掘生产潜能;引导居民树立正确的消费观,倡导理性、健康消费;充分利用省外食用油市场,建立健全食用油储备体系。

The rapeseed oil supply and demand situation of Yunnan province is analyzed, which indicates that the current rapeseed oil self-sufficiency rate is nearly 50%, the influence factors of rapeseed oil supply gap is mainly caused by increasing population, accelerating urbanization, higher living standards, improving consumption structure and shortage of rapeseed oil production due to less rapeseed output. And then based on Logistic Block Growth Model （LBGM）, the authors forecast the future population trend and the future consumption demand for rapeseed oil in Yunnan province, the results show that the upper limit of the future population of Yunnan province is 55.74 million, up to 2020, the population is 49.14 million, the demand of rapeseed oil approaches 600 000 tons, which means the future supply gap will be up to two times of self-sufficiency level. Finally, in order to guarantee edible oil supply security of Yunnan province, the authors propose such measures as expanding the acreage of rapeseed crop and fully tapping production potential, guiding residents to establish a correct concept of consumption and advocating rational and healthy consumption, and taking full advantage of outside edible oil markets to establish and improve the edible oil reserve system.