基于改进GM(1,N)灰色关联模型的铅酸蓄电池容量预测

The prediction of residual capacity of lead-acid battery based on improved GM(1,N) grey model

铅酸蓄电池由于其容量大、成本低、自放电率低等优点是应急电源(EPS)系统的基本组成部分,剩余容量作为衡量蓄电池能力指标的重要参数直接影响着系统的安全运行。引入电池的端电压、内阻两个参数作为容量的两个关联因素,建立多因素关联分析的GM(1,N)灰色模型,并对模型进行了改进,针对影响模型预测精度的关键量"均值序列加权参数",提出了一种合理有效的选取方法,最后的预测实例验证以及误差分析表明,该方法具有操作简单、算法复杂度低而且预测精度高的优点,有很强的实际应用价值。

Because of the advantages of large capacity, low cost and low self discharge, lead - acid batteries are be- coming the basic components of the emergency power supply （EPS） system. The residual capacity, as the important indicator of battery capacity, directly affects the safe operation of the system. The battery terminal voltage and internal resistance are introduced as the connected factors of the capacity. And＇GM （ 1 ,N） grey model of multi -factor associ- ated analysis is established, and the improved model is obtained. Aiming at the average sequence parameters which affect the model predicting accuracy, a reasonable and effective selection method is proposed in this paper. The final prediction example verification and error analysis show that the method has simple operation, low algorithm complexity and the advantage of high precision, strong practical application value.