基于工期可控性的网络进度计划仿真评价方法研究

Research on simulation evaluation method based on duration controllability of network schedule

针对工程建设过程中常常通过资源重新配置或提高资源利用率来应对风险事件可能引起工期延迟的问题,提出了基于工期可控性的网络进度计划随机仿真评价方法,以资源配置和利用裕度作为活动的可控性衡量指标,同时考虑了风险事件发生时间不同导致的风险应对措施的可实施性不同的问题,通过对各个风险事件发生时间及其引起的活动持续时间延误、风险应对效果等进行随机仿真,从而对整个项目的工期分布进行模拟,评价编制的网络进度计划的合理性。算例表明:相对于传统的基于工期和基于因素的Monte-Carlo仿真评价方法,基于工期可控性的仿真评价方法得到的结果更为合理。

As the fact that schedulers usually utilizing resources re-allocation and improving resource-utilization efficiency in coping with project delay caused by risk events,a stochastic simulation evaluation method based on duration controllability of network schedule was put for-ward. This method took the resource allocation and utilization of margin of the activity as con-trollable indicators,and considered different constructability of measures reaction to different occur time of risk events. Through the stochastic simulation of each risk events occur time,de-lay of activity duration and effect of the risk reaction,the distribution of project duration was simulated which was utilized to evaluate the rationality of the network schedule. A case indi-cates that,compared with traditional simulation evaluation methods such as duration-based and factors-based Monte-Carlo simulation,simulation results of the duration controllability-based is more reasonable.