自贸区建设背景下上海经济增长的影响因素分析

An Analysis on Influencing factors Affecting Economic Growth of Shanghai in Context of Free Trade Zone Construction

上海自贸区的确立无疑将极大地推动上海经济与贸易的飞速发展。通过多元线性回归模型,对自贸区建设背景下影响上海市1995—2012十八年间经济增长的因素进行了实证分析。发现物质资本投入、劳动投入、人力资本投入、上海出口总额对上海市经济增长有显著贡献,其中人力资本投入和上海出口总额的贡献最明显。在此基础上,提出了促进上海经济快速、稳定增长的建议,以促进上海自贸区的发展。

The establishment of Shanghai Free Trade Zone will undoubtly greatly facilitae the rapid economic and trade growth of Shanghai. In this paper,an empirical analysis on factors affecting the economic growth of Shanghai in the context of free trade zone construction during the 18 years extending from 1995 to 2012 is conducted,using econometrics herein multivariate linear regression model. The research findings indicate：physical capital investment, labor input, human capital investment and total export volume contributed significantly to the economic growth of Shanghai;the contributions from human capital investment and total export volume were the most significant. On the basis of this analysis, suggestions on faciltating rapid and stable economic growth of Shanghai and the development of Shanghai Free Trade Zone are proposed.